Are you ready for V2V?

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently said that a national “vehicle-to-vehicle system” (V2V) mandate could come within the next couple of years. The NHTSA also says it could require automakers to implement V2V technology in those same few years. Car enthusiasts might be tempted to wonder if this a threat or a promise considering the large number of people in this country who actually enjoy having the responsibility and skill (not to mention the freedom) to pilot personal vehicles on their own.

Vehicle-to-vehicle systems essentially allow vehicles to talk to one another, exchanging data like speed and position. Proponents of the vehicle-to-vehicle communication system say implementing the technology allowing cars to share data on speed, location and other factors could make the nation’s roads safer. Some have also rather optimistically estimated that up to 81% of all car accidents could be prevented by V2V systems. They also contend that V2V will help smooth the flow of traffic by tapping into sensors embedded in streetlamps, stop signs, and other roadside infrastructure to communicate with cars and suggest alternate, less crowded routes. V2V is a necessary precursor to the rollout of autonomous vehicles (robot cars). Autonomous vehicle proponents are a camp that believes that people need to be driven instead of driving, and that it will be a positive step in the evolution of transportation. It seems they also believe it is inevitable.

This conclusion was evidenced when the NHTSA’s Acting Administrator, David Friedman, said “V2V crash avoidance technology has game-changing potential to significantly reduce the number of crashes, injuries and deaths on our nation’s roads. Decades from now, it’s likely we’ll look back at this time period as one in which the historical arc of transportation safety considerably changed for the better, similar to the introduction of standards for seat belts, airbags, and electronic stability control technology.”

The time table for the changeover and exactly how many people are looking forward to it varies. A 2011 online survey in the U.S. and the UK (conducted by Accenture) found that 49% of those surveyed said they would be comfortable with a “driverless car”. A 2012 survey conducted by J.D. Power and Associates in the U.S. found that 37% of survey responders said they would be interested in purchasing a fully autonomous car. A survey of German drivers conducted by the German automotive research firm Puls found that 22% of respondents had a positive attitude towards autonomous cars, 10% were undecided, 44% were skeptical and 24% were hostile towards them. American, Brit and German drivers have all had well-established reputations for enjoying driving in the past. What about the rest of the world? A recent survey across 10 countries conducted by Cisco Systems found that 57% of respondents would be comfortable in cars controlled entirely by technology, with Brazil, India and China listed as those most willing to trust the technology. Perhaps those three nations’ notoriously crowded road conditions have something to do with the high acceptance numbers? Interestingly, the Accenture survey of U.S. and UK drivers also found that the number of people willing to accept driverless cars fell significantly when they learned that the technology would add to the price of their cars. Accenture found that the initial 49% acceptance number fell to just 20% when the U.S. and UK drivers learned the technology would cost on average an additional $3,000.

V2V systems won’t be truly useful until a significant number of cars on the road have the technology and although those additional costs will likely be lower by the time V2V debuts, some say that factor will erased by the cost of collision repairs and medical bills that the technology will reduce. There are also other downsides to V2V beyond the extra cost to consumers. Software reliability and cyber security are two of the biggest concerns. V2V will be a network of cars, and anytime there’s a network, it’s vulnerable to hacking and there could be potential negative effects on privacy as well. There are also questions as to what safeguards the NHTSA will mandate in order to prevent vehicles from being hacked and questions about what “normal” drivers be required to give up in order for their cars to become networked. There are also a lot of questions as to the liability for damages in V2V accidents as well as how the government will implement the regulations for self-driving cars.

Another big question looms in the form of the V2V system’s vulnerability to politicians. Once politicians discover they have the ability to make modifications to the V2V system it is not impossible to imagine they might desire to “helpfully “mandate a slew of restrictions and requirements like speed limits, requiring more than one occupant on commutes, authorization to take “unnecessary” vacation drives, the list is potentially endless. It doesn’t take a whole lot of imagination to conjure a distant future where you must submit a form to the DMV in order to obtain a “pass” to be able to drive to work and back (during approved hours only of course).

The Department of Transportation has already begun conducting real-world tests of the V2V technology in the U.S. and the NHTSA has begun working on a timetable for implementation, which could be released sooner than many might think. Any such government “timetable” must be taken with a grain of salt this early in the game, but it looks like it is definitely on the way. In the meantime, for the automobile enthusiast population, the people who enjoy driving, building, modifying and restoring the cars on the roads today, the prospect of V2V probably does not sound that great. No matter how or when the government introduces V2V and driverless car technology, it is probably a good bet that the auto enthusiast community can count on a very long transition period along with many accommodations to allow existing vehicles without the technology to continue to utilize the roads.